How long before mobile-phone users can make voice calls and send text messages free of charge? One company boss, who preferred to remain anonymous, told the Financial Times newspaper earlier this week that he expected this to happen in the not-too-distant future. Customers would pay for a bundle of megabytes (or gigabytes), for use with internet and other data services, and get to enjoy the old-fashioned stuff for nothing.

Such a development may seem a radical break with the business models of the past. Voice and texting still account for the bulk of operator revenues, even in markets where data services are flourishing. Yet those services are being hammered from all sides. Joining the well-known antagonists of competition and regulation is now another: data services themselves.

Two reports support the idea, as does recent operational data from some high-profile operators. In a study by Citigroup, analysts correlate the recent take-up of social media services, email and instant messaging—on devices like the iPhone or using Google’s Android operating system—with a tumble in texts sent over the Christmas period.

According to Citigroup, the decline is especially severe in the oldest texting markets, such as Finland. But it is also sharp in countries with high penetration of smartphones and social media tools, notes Strand Consult, a market-research company based in Denmark. In Denmark itself, three of the country’s four network operators witnessed double-digit percentage declines in texting volumes between the first half of 2010 and the first half of 2011 (see chart). Put simply, when communicating through the typed word, Facebook seems a lot more appealing than an operator’s texting service to most smartphone users.

The introduction of unlimited voice calls and texting would mark a complete turnaround from the situation three or four years ago, when smartphone users paid for bundles of voice minutes and texts and got ‘all-you-can-eat’ internet usage thrown in. Because data services gobble up so much network capacity, compared with voice calls and texts, that pricing system was never going to last. Operators will hope the switch has a restorative effect on their margins. But as their oldest services lose relevance, they will look more like dumb pipes than ever before.

The EIU's Telecoms Briefing offers forecasts and analysis for the world’s major telecoms markets, by combining reliable historical data with the expertise of our country analysts to project trends for the next five years.

The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) has turned the spotlight on governments at this year’s Mobile World Congress, arguing that “countries need robust national broadband plans to promote faster rollout of fibre networks”, according to the Guardian.

It’s perhaps odd to hear the subject of fibre being raised at a conference dedicated to all things mobile, but Hamadoun Touré, the ITU’s Secretary General, was commenting on the importance of fixed-line infrastructure for mobile backhaul, especially as data traffic surges. He also urged governments to free up spectrum for new mobile-phone services.

The UK government, in particular, has come in for criticism in this area. Besides being slow to auction off new spectrum, it has still not launched four pilot projects announced in October as part of its national broadband plan.

Perhaps more troublingly, the UK’s broadband plan appears to lack ambition when compared with those in other countries. Our own recently released government broadband index (gBBi), which looks at countries on the basis of their national broadband plans, ranks the UK in the bottom three countries out of the 16 assessed.

The UK suffers in our index for setting relatively low targets for the speed of next-generation and universal broadband services, and for aiming to cover a smaller share of the population with superfast networks than governments elsewhere. What’s more, regulatory measures aimed at facilitating competition are less advanced than in other parts of Europe, and particularly neighbouring France.

The EIU's Telecoms Briefing offers forecasts and analysis for the world’s major telecoms markets, by combining reliable historical data with the expertise of our country analysts to project trends for the next five years.

The latest results from the Economist Intelligence Unit’s semi-annual Tech Sector Barometer indicate a slight decline in optimism among respondents over the past six months. This could, of course, reflect the shift from stimulus spending to the introduction of austerity measures.

Confidence remains high, however, with less than 10% of respondents forecasting a deterioration in demand conditions. The survey results also broadly reflect the latest forecasts from the Economist Intelligence Unit of modest growth in the global economy (a 2.7% increase in real GDP next year, compared with 3.5% in 2010) and no feared double-dip recession. They also support Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that IT spending will grow at a rate of 4.4% next year—the same rate as in 2010.

Company forecasts suggest that there is some concern about demand for consumer electronics where GDP growth is also expected to be sluggish. The ongoing corporate refresh cycle is nevertheless a welcome development for many technology companies. Expectations of a deterioration in demand conditions are likely to be strongest among companies with exposure to the public sector, where cutbacks are under way.

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The EIU's Telecoms Briefing offers forecasts and analysis for the world’s major telecoms markets, by combining reliable historical data with the expertise of our country analysts to project trends for the next five years.